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The Urban Water Infrastructure Investment Model (UWIIM) is a discrete time dynamical systems model designed to reflect the general flow of water, investment, and information in a stylized urban water coupled infrastructure system. The model couples operational considerations regarding the use of infrastructure, including storage, processing, and delivery infrastructure to meet annual demand given varying, user-defined, hydrologic inflows with political-economic considerations at play in three annual decisions: short-term (with a year) curtailment of demand, investment in infrastructure, and rate-setting. We demonstrate the model with representative configurations for three Phoenix Metropolitan Area (PMA) cities: Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Queen Creek. A detailed description of the model can be found in the attached Supporting Information document. The model uses the Julia programming language (version 1.8.4). The resources published here allow users to (i.) run the UWIIM for each of the three PMA cities and vary the parameters or initial conditions used and (ii.) replicate the sensitivity analysis performed in the referenced manuscript. Both tasks can be performed with the Jupyter notebooks or Julia code contained in the source code file. We also provide the raw outputs from the sensitivity analysis and R scripts used to produce the analysis figures displayed in the manuscript. 

Abstract Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital—equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth’s current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable. 

In Arizona, the policy debates over the Colorado River Basin Drought Contingency Plans exposed long-running tensions surrounding how we use and value scarce water resources in a desert. These negotiations also highlighted generations-old disputes between indigenous communities’ water rights and Anglo settlers. This paper explores how irrigators respond to, and participate in, the crafting of institutional arrangements while at the same time experiencing increased exposure to climatic and hydrological risk. Our analysis incorporates qualitative interview data, a literature review, archival information from policy reports, and secondary data on water use and agricultural production. Building on the fieldwork with farmers and water experts that we completed before the drought contingency planning efforts began, we describe the status quo and then explore potential future contexts based on shifting incentives and on the constraints that arise during periods of Colorado River water shortages. Through an understanding of the socio-hydrological system, we examine the region’s agricultural water use, water governance, indigenous water rights and co-governance, and the potential future of agriculture in the region. Our study illustrates how the historic and current institutions have been maintaining agricultural vibrancy but also creating new risks associated with increased dependence on the Colorado River.